Computer Simulation of COVID-19 Spread in Nepal

We propose a computer simulation tool to predict the spread of the novel Coronavirus in Nepal. Our simulation is based on a graph-theoretic approach, and relies on region-specific data on human mobility, population density, number of hospital beds and age distribution, among others. The model consists of solving a set of coupled ordinary differential equations to obtain the time-dynamics of the state of health of the nodes (e.g. cities or villages). We consider running an ensemble of simulations, each corresponding to a different disease outbreak scenario. Such a tool will be instrumental in strategizing optimal intervening responses a-priori to halt the progression of the disease. Our simulations aim to serve policy makers in Nepal and around the world to make informed decisions to fight the Coronavirus crisis.